• Wed. Jul 17th, 2024

USD/MXN Price Analysis: Sits near two-week high/38.2% Fibo., bullish potential intact


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  • USD/MXN is seen oscillating in a range on Friday and consolidating its weekly gains.
  • The technical setup favours bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains.
  • Any meaningful corrective slide could attract some dip-buying and remain cushioned.

The USD/MXN pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past three days and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 18.3185 region, down less than 0.10% for the day, and remain well within the striking distance of a near two-week high touched on Thursday.

From a technical perspective, the USD/MXN last week bounced off the 17.7550-17.7545 confluence resistance-turned-support – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a multi-month-old descending trend-line. The subsequent move up, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, favours bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 18.4935 area, or the highest level since late March touched earlier this month, before placing fresh bullish bets. The USD/MXN pair might then climb further towards the 18.8145-18.8150 region, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall witnessed in July, which if cleared will set the stage for additional gains.

On the flip side, any corrective slide might now find decent support near the 18.1100 level. This is followed by the 18.0000 mark, below which the USD/MXN pair could retest the weekly low, around the 17.8720-17.8715 region. Some follow-through selling will expose the 200-day SMA support, currently pegged around the 17.7425 zone, before spot prices drop to the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 17.6595-17.6590 area.

The latter coincides with the aforementioned descending trend-line resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below will shift the near-term bias back in favour of bearish traders and make the USD/MXN pair vulnerable to weaken further.

USD.MXN daily chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 18.3184
Today Daily Change -0.0147
Today Daily Change % -0.08
Today daily open 18.3331
Daily SMA20 17.8728
Daily SMA50 17.4094
Daily SMA100 17.2383
Daily SMA200 17.7527
Previous Daily High 18.3982
Previous Daily Low 18.16
Previous Weekly High 18.4216
Previous Weekly Low 17.7545
Previous Monthly High 17.8174
Previous Monthly Low 16.9727
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 18.3072
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 18.251
Daily Pivot Point S1 18.196
Daily Pivot Point S2 18.059
Daily Pivot Point S3 17.9579
Daily Pivot Point R1 18.4342
Daily Pivot Point R2 18.5353
Daily Pivot Point R3 18.6723


On Key

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