• Sat. Jul 20th, 2024

NZD/USD touches fresh 2023 trough, around 0.5825 area as traders look to Fed’s Powell


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  • NZD/USD drifts lower for the third straight day and touched its lowest level since November 2022.
  • The Israel-Hamas war, hawkish Fed expectations underpin the Greenback and weigh on the major.
  • Traders look to the US macro data for some impetus ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.

The NZD/USD pair remains under heavy selling pressure for the third successive day – also marking the sixth day of a negative move in the previous seven – and dives to its lowest level since early November 2022 during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5825 region, down over 0.40% for the day, and seem vulnerable to prolonging the recent declining trend from the 0.6055 area, or the monthly peak touched last week.

The market sentiment remains fragile in the wake of growing concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict could spill over into the Middle East region, especially after a Gaza hospital reportedly killed hundreds of Palestinians. This, in turn, is seen benefitting the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and driving flows away from the risk-sensitive Kiwi. Apart from this, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer turns out to be another factor underpinning the Greenback and exerting downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

The upbeat US Retail Sales figures released on Tuesday suggested that the economy ended the third quarter on a strong note and lifted Q3 GDP estimates. The data also pushed up fears of sticky inflation, which could allow the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish stance and keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, leads to an extended selloff in the US fixed-income market and continues to push the US Treasury bond yields higher. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond jumps to a fresh 16-year peak and moves close to the 5% threshold.

The current market pricing, however, points to a greater chance that the US central bank could hold interest rates steady for the second straight time in November. This, in turn, is holding back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, though does little to lend any support to the NZD/USD pair. Traders now look to the US macro data – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales data – for a fresh impetus. The focus, however, will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech later during the US session.

Technical levels to watch


Today last price 0.5829
Today Daily Change -0.0027
Today Daily Change % -0.46
Today daily open 0.5856
Daily SMA20 0.5949
Daily SMA50 0.5938
Daily SMA100 0.6053
Daily SMA200 0.6155
Previous Daily High 0.5921
Previous Daily Low 0.5851
Previous Weekly High 0.6056
Previous Weekly Low 0.5882
Previous Monthly High 0.605
Previous Monthly Low 0.5847
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5878
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5894
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5831
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5806
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5761
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5901
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5946
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.5971
On Key

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