As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
|Week 2023-08-18||-0.66%||-72.5 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 08:30 AM HCOB Composite PMI
Wed 08:30 AM HCOB Manufacturing PMI
Wed 08:30 AM HCOB Services PMI
Wed 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI
Wed 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Wed 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Services PMI
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Fri 03:05 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
What happened over the week
In the week ending 12 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 239K compared to previous figure 250K (revised upward from 248K) Source: Department of Labor
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in August exceed forecast and rose to 12 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in July
U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure -0.8% (revised from -0.5%)
Euro Area Employment Change (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.6% in Q1
Euro Area GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate unchanged at 0.6% compared to previous report in Q1. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in June Source: Census Bureau
U.S. Retail Trade Control Group in July rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) Source: Census Bureau
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.04% to 1.08711. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-18, the pair dropped -0.66% or -72.5 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.08447.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.08238 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.07765 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.09602 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.08447 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of August, EURUSD is down by -1.14% or -125.7 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out: