The EUR/USD pair remains a favorite among forex traders due to its liquidity and volatility. As of today, the pair is trading near 1.0935, showing signs of bullish continuation. This article provides an in-depth intraday analysis, including key technical levels, potential entry and exit points, and a risk management strategy to optimize trading performance.
Overview of EUR/USD
Fundamental Factors Influencing EUR/USD Today
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FOMC Policy Expectations
- Market participants anticipate a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year.
- A dovish Fed outlook weakens the USD, supporting a bullish bias for EUR/USD.
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Eurozone Economic Data
- Stronger-than-expected inflation figures from Germany and France have boosted the euro.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious about rate cuts, providing additional support for EUR strength.
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Geopolitical and Market Sentiment
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to create market uncertainty.
- Risk appetite remains mixed, affecting the demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset.
Key Technical Levels for Intraday Trading of EUR/USD
Support Levels (Buyers May Step In)
- 1.0830: Strong demand zone and previous swing low.
- 1.0800: Psychological level and key intraday support.
- 1.0726: 200-day SMA, acting as a long-term support level.
Resistance Levels (Sellers May Emerge)
- 1.0946: Recent swing high from March 11, 2025.
- 1.0969: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend.
- 1.1000: A major psychological resistance level where selling pressure may increase.
Technical Indicators & Market Sentiment for EUR/USD
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 72, suggesting overbought conditions and a possible short-term pullback.
- Moving Averages:
- The 50-day SMA (1.0880) is acting as dynamic support.
- The 200-day SMA (1.0726) remains a long-term bullish indicator.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum.
- Bollinger Bands: The price is near the upper band, indicating potential overextension and a possible pullback.
Intraday Trading Strategy for EUR/USD Trading in Asia
Bullish Scenario – Buying on Breakout
If the EUR/USD price breaks above 1.0950 with strong bullish momentum:
- Entry Point: Buy at 1.0950 (Breakout confirmation).
- Stop-Loss: Place at 1.0890 (Below recent support).
- Take-Profit Target: 1.1000 (Psychological resistance).
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 to ensure a favorable risk-to-reward balance.
Bearish Scenario – Selling on Rejection
If the EUR/USD fails to break above 1.0946 and forms a bearish reversal:
- Entry Point: Sell at 1.0890 (Below support).
- Stop-Loss: Set at 1.0945 (Above resistance).
- Take-Profit Target: 1.0830 (Next key support level).
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2, ensuring effective risk management.
Alternative Intraday Strategy: Range Trading
If the market remains sideways between 1.0890 and 1.0946, traders can:
- Buy near 1.0890 with a stop-loss at 1.0870 and a target of 1.0940.
- Sell near 1.0946 with a stop-loss at 1.0965 and a target of 1.0895.
This approach works best when volatility is low and price action remains within a well-defined range.
Risk Management & Trading Psychology in Forex Trading
1. Position Sizing
- Risk no more than 1-2% of total trading capital per trade.
- Adjust trade size based on volatility and stop-loss distance.
2. Avoid Overtrading
- Stick to the plan and avoid impulsive trades.
- Wait for confirmation signals before entering a trade.
3. News Impact Awareness
- Monitor high-impact events such as U.S. jobless claims, ECB speeches, and inflation reports.
- Avoid trading during major news releases if spreads widen and volatility spikes.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD remains bullish but faces key resistance at 1.1000. Intraday traders can capitalize on breakout opportunities above 1.0950 or short positions on rejection near resistance. By combining technical analysis, fundamental factors, and strong risk management, traders can maximize profitability while minimizing risk exposure.
