Intraday Trading Strategy for AUD/USD – 11April 2025

The AUD/USD currency pair is trading cautiously during the Asia session as traders weigh the impact of U.S. economic data, a weakening U.S. dollar, and shifts in global sentiment. With the Australian dollar heavily influenced by risk appetite and China’s economic health, intraday strategies today require a careful balance of technical signals and fundamental insights.

Key Technical Levels for AUD/USD Trading

The following support and resistance levels are critical to watch in today’s session. These levels are derived from Fibonacci retracements, previous swing highs/lows, and psychological round numbers:

Potential Trade Setup for AUD/USD Trading in Asia

📈 Long Trade Setup – Bullish Breakout Scenario

• Entry: Buy AUD/USD at 0.6275 on a confirmed bullish breakout above resistance

• Stop-Loss: 0.6235 (below the resistance zone to avoid whipsaws)

• Take-Profit 1: 0.6318

• Take-Profit 2: 0.6380

• Confirmation: Price above 50-period EMA and bullish MACD crossover

📉 Short Trade Setup – Resistance Rejection Scenario

• Entry: Sell AUD/USD around 0.6240 if price shows signs of rejection (bearish engulfing, pin bar)

• Stop-Loss: 0.6280

• Take-Profit 1: 0.6200

• Take-Profit 2: 0.6170

• Confirmation: Bearish RSI divergence and price below 20-period EMA

Intraday Trading Strategy for AUD/USD Trading in Asia

Given the tighter ranges often seen during the Asia session, intraday trades should be:

• Scalp-oriented or short-term swing trades, depending on momentum

• Focused around key support/resistance reactions

• Aligned with early movements in the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices, which impact AUD sentiment

Avoid taking new trades during low liquidity zones between the Sydney-Tokyo handoff unless a breakout with strong volume is evident.

Fundamental and Technical Analysis for AUD/USD Trading

🏛 Fundamental Overview:

• U.S. Dollar Weakness: The dollar index has edged lower following soft U.S. inflation data and dovish FOMC minutes.

• China’s Recovery in Focus: Chinese trade and credit data released this week exceeded expectations, supporting AUD slightly.

• RBA Policy Outlook: The Reserve Bank of Australia remains cautiously dovish, but no further cuts are expected in the near term.

📊 Technical Overview:

• AUD/USD has formed a base near 0.6200, creating a range-bound structure that may break with momentum.

• Momentum oscillators suggest neutral-to-bullish divergence, hinting at potential upside if confirmed by volume.

Technical Indicators

Here are the intraday technical tools supporting the trade decision:

• RSI (14): Currently at 48, showing consolidation but watch for a break above 55 for bullish confirmation

• MACD: Converging on the zero line; bullish crossover on the 30-minute chart may signal upward momentum

• EMAs: 20-period and 50-period EMAs acting as dynamic support and resistance on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts

• ATR (14): Showing compressed volatility (~30 pips) – indicating a potential breakout is near

Risk Management Strategies in Trading

Consistent risk control is key in intraday trading. Here’s a checklist:

• Position Sizing: Never risk more than 1.5–2% of total capital on a single trade

• Set Stop-Loss Before Entry: Protect against emotional exits during fast moves

• Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 on every setup

• Volatility Filters: Avoid trading during thin liquidity (mid-Asia session or pre-news)

• News Events: U.S. PPI and initial jobless claims could bring high volatility; exit or trail stops accordingly

Final Thoughts

AUD/USD offers intraday trading potential within a well-defined range, with breakouts likely around the 0.6240–0.6270 resistance zone. Whether trading a bullish breakout or a rejection from resistance, confirmation from volume, RSI, and MACD is essential.