• Sun. Jul 21st, 2024

USD/MXN Price Analysis: Consolidates in a range around 18.20 area, just below 38.2% Fibo.

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  • USD/MXN lacks any firm intraday direction on Tuesday and remains confined in a narrow range.
  • The technical setup favours bulls and supports prospects for an extension of a one-month-old uptrend.
  • A convincing break below the 23.6% Fibo. level is needed to negate the near-term positive outlook.

The USD/MXN pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range, around the 18.20 region through the Asian session.

From a technical perspective, spot prices have been struggling to find acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the steep fall witnessed in July. This, along with the fact that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is still holding in the overbought territory, warrants caution for bullish traders. That said, the recent breakout through the 17.80-17.85 confluence, comprising a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a multi-month-old descending trend-line, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/MXN pair is to the upside.

In the meantime, any corrective decline is more likely to attract fresh buyers near the 18.0000 mark and remain limited near the aforementioned resistance breakpoint, now turned support. The next relevant support is pegged near the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 17.6635 area, which if broken decisively will negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias back in favour of bearish traders. The USD/MXN pair might then accelerate the slide further towards the 17.40-17.35 horizontal support en route to the 17.15-17.10 region before eventually dropping to test sub-17.00 levels.

On the flip side, bulls need to wait for a sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. level before placing fresh bets. Some follow-through buying above Friday’s swing high, around the mid-18.00s will reaffirm the positive bias and lift the USD/MXN pair further to the 18.80-18.85 area, representing 50% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for an extension of the recent appreciating move witnessed over the past month or so.

USD/MXN daily chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 18.1911
Today Daily Change -0.0097
Today Daily Change % -0.05
Today daily open 18.2008
Daily SMA20 17.5121
Daily SMA50 17.2569
Daily SMA100 17.2125
Daily SMA200 17.7973
Previous Daily High 18.4216
Previous Daily Low 18.1589
Previous Weekly High 18.4934
Previous Weekly Low 17.3786
Previous Monthly High 17.8174
Previous Monthly Low 16.9727
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 18.3213
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 18.2593
Daily Pivot Point S1 18.0993
Daily Pivot Point S2 17.9978
Daily Pivot Point S3 17.8367
Daily Pivot Point R1 18.362
Daily Pivot Point R2 18.5231
Daily Pivot Point R3 18.6246
On Key

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