• Thu. Jul 18th, 2024

Expecting a stronger NFP print on Friday at 180K – TD Securities


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Analysts at TD Securities assess the latest data releases from the US and preview the upcoming ones.

Second tier data coming up with ADP and Home Sales

“JOLTS and Consumer Confidence both came in below consensus. We expected downside risks on both prints, which came in even larger. Job openings declined by 338k vs market consensus of an 82k decline. Both hiring and the job openings/job seekers ratios declined, while layoffs remained steady.”

“Consumer confidence also declined by 7.9 when the market was only expecting 1.0. Overall, these point to both a weaker consumer and a cooling labor market, causing rates to rally and the market to price out hikes. We are still expecting a stronger payrolls print on Friday at 180k, vs consensus of 170k as the labor market remains resilient without increasing layoffs.”

“Some second tier data coming up on Wednesday with ADP and Home Sales, as well as the second releases of GDP and Core PCE QoQ figures. All eyes will be on payrolls on Friday, so the market may be a bit reactive around any of these releases.”

On Key

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