Dear ,
As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | -0.08% | -8.5 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -1.74% | -194.1 Pips | |
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| October | -1.44% | -160.9 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
What happened lately
Germany experienced a rebound in its industrial production in August. Adjusted for seasonal influences, industrial production rose to 2.9% from a decline of -2.4% in July, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Similarly, when accounted for working-day adjustments, the year-on-year decline in industrial production lessened to -2.7% from July’s -5.3%. However, the dynamics in the manufacturing sector were less favorable. New orders in manufacturing, both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted, showed declines, with the adjusted figures drastically falling to -5.8% after posting a growth of 3.9% (originally cited as 2.9%) the previous month.
In the Euro Area, retail trade turnover demonstrated positive growth. The month-on-month turnover rate improved slightly to 0.2% in August from 0.1% in July as reported by Eurostat. Year-on-year, retail turnover grew by 0.8%, bouncing back from a slight decline of -0.1% in July. Additionally, the sentix Economic Index, which measures investor confidence across the Eurozone, recorded an improvement in October. The index rose to -13.8 points from -15.4 points in September, an indication of growing optimism in the economic outlook within the region as highlighted by sentix GmbH.
Regarding the EURUSD exchange rate, it faced a minor drop of -0.08% to 1.09757 on Tuesday. Despite the mixed economic signals from Germany and the positive retail turnover in the Euro Area, market participants may be exercising caution before two significant financial events in the US. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes and the CPI Inflation Rate data, both events high in impact, create an environment of uncertainty which might have contributed to the slight depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. Investors are likely weighing the implications of US monetary policy and inflation trends, which could influence the exchange rate movements in upcoming days.
What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.08% to 1.09757. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.09585 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.09413. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.09971 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.09606 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -1.74%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.10315 |
| R2 | 1.10143 |
| R1 | 1.0995 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.09778 |
| S1 | 1.09585 |
| S2 | 1.09413 |
| S3 | 1.0922 |
