Dear ,
As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | -0.01% | -0.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.02% | 1.8 Pips |  |
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| October | -1.44% | -160.3 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
What happened lately
In the Euro Area, there has been a modest improvement in retail trade turnover. For August, the turnover increased to 0.2% from 0.1% in July, as reported by Eurostat. On a year-over-year basis, there was a more substantial uptick, with retail trade turnover rising to 0.8% from a negative growth of -0.1% in July. These positive trends in retail performance suggest a slight boost in consumer spending, which can be a positive indicator for the region’s economic recovery. Additionally, sentiment in the Eurozone has shown signs of improvement as evident from the Sentix Economic Index. The index rose to -13.8 points in October from -15.4 in September, signifying a better-than-anticipated outlook among investors.
In contrast, the economic data from Germany highlights some challenges. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports a notable decline in new manufacturing orders. Non-seasonally adjusted figures for August indicate a drop of -3.9%, down from 3.7% growth in July. When seasonally adjusted, the orders further fell to -5.8%, which represents a significant downturn from a previously revised figure of 3.9%. This decline in manufacturing orders could signal potential constraints in Germany’s industrial sector, which plays a critical role in the Euro Area’s overall economic health.
The EURUSD exchange rate saw a slight decline of -0.01% to 1.09763 on Monday. This consolidation phase reflects a market waiting for further cues that could come from upcoming economic data or geopolitical events. The mixed data from the Euro Area, showing improvement in retail trade but a decline in German manufacturing orders, creates a balanced pressure on the euro. Therefore, the slight fall in EURUSD may continue in a tight range until more definitive indications are observed. A significant event that could impact the pair is the upcoming release of the USD FOMC Meeting Minutes, as this could either strengthen the dollar or give the euro room to appreciate depending on the policy outlook revealed for the United States. Until then, investors are likely to watch for any new developments that could break the consolidation pattern.
What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Monday dropped -0.01% to 1.09763. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.09579 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.09870 or trades above daily pivot 1.09724. Break above could target R1 at 1.09909. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.09579 (S1) and daily low of 1.09540 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.09540 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.10239 |
| R2 | 1.10054 |
| R1 | 1.09909 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.09724 |
| S1 | 1.09579 |
| S2 | 1.09394 |
| S3 | 1.09249 |
