• Thu. Jul 18th, 2024

USD/INR loses traction below 83.20 following RBI rate decision, US NFP eyed

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  • USD/INR holds below the 83.20 mark after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate decision.
  • RBI maintained a status quo on rates for the fourth consecutive time at 6.5%.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims improved to 207,000 from 205,000 in the previous week.
  • The US Nonfarm Payrolls will be a closely watched event for traders on Friday.

USD/INR loses momentum around 83.16 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Markets turn cautious following the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy meeting. Traders await the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday for the fresh impetus. The figures are expected to rise by 170K and this event could trigger the volatility in the market.

Following its October monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board members decided to hold the interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, as widely expected. The benchmark repo rate was raised in February and remained unchanged since then due to the higher retail inflation and global factors, particularly high crude oil prices.

During the monetary policy meeting, RBI Chief Shaktikanta Das stated that headline inflation would continue to fall in September while mentioning that cumulative policy rate hikes still working through the economy.

About the data this week, S&P Global India Services PMI for September improved to 61.0 from 60.1 in the previous reading, better than the expectation of 59.5. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.5 in September from 58.6 in August, missing the estimation of 58.1.

On the other hand, US data on Thursday revealed that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on September 30 improved to 207,000 from 205,000 in the previous week, below the market consensus of 210,000. Additionally, the US Balance of Trade deficit was $58.3B from the $64.7B recorded in July, lower than the expected $ 62.3 B.

Earlier this week, US private payrolls for September rose by 89,000 versus 180,000 prior, below the estimation, While, the US ISM Services PMI fell to 53.6 in September from the previous reading of 54.5, matching the market estimation.

Federal Reserve (Fed) is not expected to abandon its ‘higher-for-longer’ stance on interest rates. Market players await the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls for more clarity about labor market conditions. The softer figures could exert some selling pressure on the Greenback against its rivals and act as a headwind for the USD/INR pair.

Looking ahead, market players will keep an eye on the US employment data due later in the American session on Friday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 170K while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to decline to 3.7% from 3.8%. Traders will take cues from these figures and find trading opportunities around the USD/INR pair.

 

USD/INR

OVERVIEW
Today last price 83.2025
Today Daily Change -0.1595
Today Daily Change % -0.19
Today daily open 83.362
TRENDS
Daily SMA20 83.1697
Daily SMA50 82.9829
Daily SMA100 82.63
Daily SMA200 82.3844
LEVELS
Previous Daily High 84.7045
Previous Daily Low 83.1826
Previous Weekly High 83.4279
Previous Weekly Low 81.6455
Previous Monthly High 83.8456
Previous Monthly Low 81.6455
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 83.764
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 84.1231
Daily Pivot Point S1 82.7949
Daily Pivot Point S2 82.2278
Daily Pivot Point S3 81.273
Daily Pivot Point R1 84.3168
Daily Pivot Point R2 85.2716
Daily Pivot Point R3 85.8387
On Key

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