EURUSD on Wednesday rose 0.28% to 1.08589. What we know.

Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.28%	30.5 Pips
Week to-date	0.58%	62.3 Pips
October	-2.49%	-277.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

  Thu 10:00 AM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
  Thu 12:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
  Fri 12:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the United States, recent economic data indicates a mixed picture. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Q3 flash estimate of GDP decreased slightly to 2.8% from 3.0% in Q2, indicating a marginal slowdown in economic growth. However, there was a significant uptick in pending home sales, which surged by 7.4% in September compared to a modest 0.6% increase in August. The PCE excluding food and energy over a three-month period decreased to 2.2% from 2.8%, and the overall PCE Price dropped to 1.5% from 2.5% last quarter, suggesting softening inflationary pressures. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a decrease in job openings, falling to 7.443 million in September, down from a revised 7.861 million in August.

Turning to Germany, the latest economic indicators show rising inflation. The Federal Statistical Office reported that the country’s CPI inflation rate increased to 2% in October’s flash estimate, up from 1.6% in September. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices also showed a rise to 2.4% from 1.8%. The GDP experienced a marginal recovery, increasing to 0.2% in the Q3 flash estimate from -0.1% in Q2. However, Germany faces unemployment challenges, as unemployment changes increased by 27K in October, raising the seasonally adjusted rate to 6.1% from 6.0%. The GfK Consumer Confidence Survey showed an improvement, moving to -18.3 in November from -21 in October.

In the broader Euro Area, economic indicators are mixed. Eurostat reported a Q3 GDP flash estimate increase to 0.9% from 0.6% in Q2, while the seasonally adjusted GDP increased to 0.4% from 0.2%. However, sentiment indicators weakened, with the Business Climate Indicator and Economic Sentiment Indicator declining to -0.96 and 95.6 points, respectively. Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -12.5 points in October.

The EURUSD dynamics are influenced by these economic results. Germany’s inflation pickup and the Euro Area GDP growth provide support for the Euro, which outweighed some negative sentiment in business and economic confidence. Despite the ECB’s potential for tighter monetary policy due to rising inflation, weaker U.S. economic data, including slower GDP growth and job openings, might weaken the U.S. dollar. Therefore, the EURUSD rose by 0.28%. The upcoming HICP data release for the Euro Area and U.S. PCE are key events that could lead to further fluctuations in this currency pair, as both are high-impact economic indicators.

What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Wednesday rose 0.28% to 1.08589. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Wednesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.08843 with break above could target R2 at 1.09096 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.08076 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.08713 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.58% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out: