Dear ,
As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.43% | 47.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.63% | 70.4 Pips | |
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| September | 0.71% | 78.4 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 04:00 PM EUR European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech
What happened lately
In the United States, September’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey saw a positive shift, climbing to 1.7 points from a negative -7 points in August, based on data from the Philadelphia Fed. Moreover, initial unemployment claims for the week ending September 14 decreased significantly to 219,000 from a revised figure of 231,000, as reported by the Department of Labor. Interest rate projections also provided notable insights. The Federal Reserve updated its rate projections, revealing a decrease in the projected first-year rate to 3.4% from 4.1%, the second-year rate dipping to 2.9%, and the long-term projections rising slightly to 2.9%. Additionally, the Fed Interest Rate decision saw a drop to 5% from the previous 5.5%. Housing data showed positive trends, with building permits for August increasing to 1.475 million from 1.406 million in July, and housing starts rising to 1.356 million from 1.237 million, according to the Census Bureau.
In the Euro Area, inflation metrics remained relatively stable. The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for August held steady at 0.3%, mirroring July’s report, as per Eurostat. Similarly, the Core HICP, on a 12-month basis, remained consistent at 2.8%. However, there was a slight decrease in the overall HICP for August, which dropped to 0.1% from 0.2% in July.
The array of economic data from the United States, coupled with the relative stability in European inflation indicators, influenced the EURUSD currency pair. The dip in U.S. interest rate projections and the reduction in unemployment claims hinted at a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve stance, thereby weakening the USD. Concurrently, stable yet low inflation rates in the Euro Area suggested minimal urgency for policy changes by the European Central Bank. As a result, EURUSD saw an uptick of 0.43% to 1.11588 on Thursday. The upcoming speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is highly anticipated and may provide further direction for the currency pair, especially if there are hints towards future monetary policy adjustments.
What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Thursday rose 0.43% to 1.11588. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.12025 with break above could target R2 at 1.12462 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.10681 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.11790 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.63% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.13134 |
| R2 | 1.12462 |
| R1 | 1.12025 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.11353 |
| S1 | 1.10916 |
| S2 | 1.10244 |
| S3 | 1.09807 |
