EURUSD on Friday rose 0.35% to 1.10147. Week ending 2023-07-28 moved lower by -0.99%. What you need to know.

Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.35%	38.3 Pips
Week 2023-07-28	-0.99%	-109.8 Pips
July	0.98%	107.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

  Mon 07:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
  Mon 10:00 AM Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
  Mon 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
  Mon 10:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
  Tue 08:55 AM HCOB Manufacturing PMI
  Tue 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
  Wed 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  Thu 08:55 AM HCOB Composite PMI
  Thu 08:55 AM HCOB Services PMI
  Thu 09:00 AM HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI
  Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
  Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI
  Fri 10:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
  Fri 01:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
  Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in July below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 3.1% in June Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q2 below forecast and dropped to 1% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q1
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) in June exceed forecast and rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in May
🇩🇪 Germany CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in July preliminary estimate dropped to 6.2% compared to previous figure 6.4% in June
🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence in July unchanged at -15.1 points compared to previous report in June. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: DG ECFIN
🇺🇸 U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -2.5% (revised from -2.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q2 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 4.9% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q2 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.4% compared to previous figure 2% in Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders in June exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 1.8, revised from 1.7% in May Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 221K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor
🇪🇺 Euro Area ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) rose to 4.25% compared to previous rate 4% Source: European Central Bank
🇩🇪 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in August below forecast and improved to -24.4 points compared to previous figure -25.2, revised from -25.4 points in July Source: GfK
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in May unchanged at 0.7% compared to previous report in April.
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Expectations in July dropped to 83.5 points compared to previous figure 83.8 points (revised from 83.6 points) Source: ifo Institute
🇪🇺 Euro Area HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in July preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 42.7 points compared to previous figure 43.4 points in June

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.35% to 1.10147. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-07-28, the pair dropped -0.99% or -109.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09434.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.09222 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.08296 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.11497 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.09434 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of July, EURUSD is up by 0.98% or 107.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out: