EURUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 1.05709. Week ending 2023-09-29 moved lower by -0.68%. End of September dropped -2.5%. What you need to know.

Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.07%	7.4 Pips
Week 2023-09-29	-0.68%	-72.3 Pips
September	-2.5%	-270.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

  Mon 04:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
  Mon 11:00 PM Day of German Unity
  Wed 10:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
  Wed 05:00 PM European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech
  Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
  Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in September exceed forecast and rose to 68.1 points compared to previous figure 67.7 points in August Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth) in August dropped to 3.9% compared to previous figure 4.3% (revised from 4.2%) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇪🇺 Euro Area Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in September preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 4.5% compared to previous figure 5.3% in August Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Rate seasonal adjustment. in August unchanged at 5.7% compared to previous report in July. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Destatis
🇩🇪 Germany Retail Trade (1-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to -1.2% compared to previous figure -0.8% in July Source: Destatis
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q2 unchanged at 2.1% compared to previous report in Q1. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 23 September, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 204K compared to previous figure 201K Source: Department of Labor
🇩🇪 Germany CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in September preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 4.5% compared to previous figure 6.1% in August
🇪🇺 Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator in September dropped to 93.3 points compared to previous figure 93.6 points (revised from 93.3 points)
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders in August rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure -5.6% (revised from -5.2%) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. New-Home Sales Change (1-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to -8.7% compared to previous figure 4.4% in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in June
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Business Climate in September dropped to 85.7 points compared to previous figure 85.8 points (revised from 85.7 points) Source: ifo Institute
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Expectations in September exceed forecast and rose to 82.9 points compared to previous figure 82.6 points in August Source: ifo Institute
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Current Assessment in September exceed forecast and dropped to 88.7 points compared to previous figure 89 points in August Source: ifo Institute

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 1.05709. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-09-29, the pair dropped -0.68% or -72.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.04878.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.04873 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.04037 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.06555 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.04878 would indicate selling pressure.

End of September, EURUSD is down by -2.5% or -270.6 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out: