• Sun. Nov 3rd, 2024

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.01% to 1.09353. Week ending 2024-10-11 moved lower by -0.35%. What you need to know.

fxarmy

Featured Brokers

Liquidity

Min. Deposit: 100 USD

Regulated: NFA, CFTC

Broker Type: ECN, STP

AvaTrade

Min.Deposit: $100

Regulated: CySEC

Broker Type: ECN, STP

FBS

Min.Deposit: $1

Regulated: ASIC, IFSC

Broker Type: ECN, STP

JustMarkets

Min.Deposit: 1 USD

Regulated: FSA, CySEC

Broker Type: STP

Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period Pct Chg Momentum
Friday 0.01% 1.4 Pips
Week 2024-10-11 -0.35% -38.6 Pips
October -1.81% -201.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

  Mon 06:00 AM Columbus Day
  Tue 09:00 AM Euro area Bank Lending Survey
  Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
  Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
  Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the Index of Consumer Sentiment showed a decrease in confidence to 68.9 points in October from 70.1 in September, as reported by the University of Michigan. Simultaneously, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September remained unchanged from August, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics noting a 12-month increase of 1.8%. Excluding food and energy, the annual PPI rate climbed to 2.8% in September, despite a monthly drop to 0.2%. Furthermore, initial unemployment insurance claims rose significantly to 258,000, the highest since early August 2023, indicating potential labor market stress. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) also marked a 0.2% increase for September, maintaining the same pace recorded in the previous months, and a yearly rise of 2.4%, the smallest since early 2021.

Germany reported stability in the 12-month Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), remaining at 1.8% for September. Encouragingly, Germany’s trade balance improved notably to €22.5 billion, while unadjusted and seasonally adjusted industrial production figures showed significant improvement in August. However, new orders in manufacturing showed a downturn with a substantial decline in both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted figures, reflecting potential issues in the manufacturing sector. Overall, the Euro Area retail turnover saw a slight increase both monthly and annually, and the sentix Economic Index showed sentiment improvement in October.

The news suggests a mixed impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate. While U.S. economic data indicates some softening momentum with lower consumer sentiment and higher unemployment claims, stable inflation figures may offer some support to the dollar. On the other hand, positive economic indicators from Germany, such as trade balance and industrial production, may fuel optimism for the euro. The upcoming European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and banking lending survey could add additional volatility. Consequently, the EUR/USD movement might face a pull-push scenario where the euro could regain ground from improved German data, but any adverse U.S. data could strengthen dollar support, especially if more significant U.S. economic events follow through the week. Overall, the nuanced interplay of these economic indicators may see the EUR/USD enter a consolidation phase unless a major economic catalyst shifts the balance decisively.


What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.01% to 1.09353. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-10-11, the pair dropped -0.35% or -38.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09001.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.08509 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.07666 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.09970 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.09001 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, EURUSD is down by -1.81% or -201.3 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R3 1.13145
R2 1.12302
R1 1.10827
Weekly Pivot 1.09984
S1 1.08509
S2 1.07666
S3 1.06191