• Fri. Sep 22nd, 2023

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.18% to 1.07930. Week ending 2023-08-25 moved lower by -0.72%. What you need to know.

Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Period Pct Chg Momentum
Friday -0.18% -19.6 Pips
Week 2023-08-25 -0.72% -78.1 Pips
August -1.85% -203.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

  Wed 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
  Wed 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  Wed 01:30 PM GDP Annualized
  Thu 10:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
  Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
  Thu 01:30 PM Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth)
  Fri 08:55 AM HCOB Manufacturing PMI
  Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
  Fri 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI

What happened over the week

🇩🇪 Germany ifo Business Climate in August dropped to 85.7 points compared to previous figure 87.4 points (revised from 87.3 points) Source: ifo Institute
🇩🇪 Germany GDP (3-mth) in Q2 unchanged at 0% compared to previous report in Q1. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense in July dropped to 0.1% compared to previous figure 5.9% (revised from 6.2%) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 In the week ending 19 August, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 230K compared to previous figure 240K (revised from 239K) Source: Department of Labor
🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence in August preliminary estimate exceed forecast and dropped to -16 points compared to previous figure -15.1 points in July Source: DG ECFIN
🇺🇸 U.S. Existing-Home Sales Change (1-mth) in July below forecast and improved to -2.2% compared to previous figure -3.3% in June
🇩🇪 Germany Producer Price Index (1-mth) in July exceed forecast and dropped to -1.1% compared to previous figure -0.3% in June Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)

EURUSD Daily Chart by TradingView

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.18% to 1.07930. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-08-25, the pair dropped -0.72% or -78.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.07285 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.06640 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.09305 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.07650 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, EURUSD is down by -1.85% or -203.8 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R3 1.10595
R2 1.09950
R1 1.08940
Weekly Pivot 1.08295
S1 1.07285
S2 1.06640
S3 1.05630

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