EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.1% to 1.11610. Week ending 2024-09-27 moved lower by 0%. What happened.

Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.1%	-10.9 Pips
Week 2024-09-27	0%	0.2 Pips
September	0.73%	80.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

  Mon 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
  Mon 06:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
  Tue 10:00 AM Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
  Wed 11:00 PM German Unity Day
  Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
  Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

The United States experienced a range of economic activities recently. According to the University of Michigan, the Index of Consumer Sentiment in September rose to 70.1 points from 69 points in August. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a slowdown in consumer spending (PCE) to 0.2% in August, down from 0.5% in July. Furthermore, their PCE Price Index for August dropped marginally to 0.1%, from 0.2% in July, but excluding food and energy, it rose to 2.7% over the past 12 months compared to 2.6% in July. The U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, as per the Bureau’s third estimate. However, durable goods orders saw a significant decrease to 0% in August from a revised 9.9% in July, reported by the Census Bureau. Also, initial unemployment insurance claims dropped slightly to 218K for the week ending September 21 compared to 219K in the previous week. Additionally, the FHFA reported a slight improvement in the House Price Index (1-mth) to 0.1% in July from -0.1% in June.

In the Euro Area, economic indicators depicted mixed sentiments. The European Commission reported that the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) in September fell to -0.76 points, down from -0.62 points in August. The DG ECFIN noted that the Consumer Confidence Indicator remained unchanged at -12.9 points for September. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) also declined to 96.2 points in September from a revised 96.5 points in August. Meanwhile, Germany’s unemployment change in September rose significantly to 17K, up from 2K in August, though the unemployment rate remained constant at 6%. The Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for October showed a slight improvement to -21.2 points from a revised -22 points in September. Lastly, the ifo Business Climate Index for Germany dropped to 85.4 points in September from 86.6 points in August.

The EURUSD moved lower by 0.1% on Friday, closing at 1.11610, with no net change for the week ending September 27, 2024. The disparity in economic data between the U.S. and the Euro Area may have contributed to this movement. Stronger consumer sentiment and GDP growth in the U.S. contrast with the softer economic indicators and increasing unemployment in the Euro Area and Germany. This highlights a potential weakness in the Euro and supports a stronger dollar. Looking ahead, significant upcoming events such as the CPI Inflation Rate in Germany, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, the Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Euro Area, and U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment figures will be crucial in setting near-term directions for EURUSD. Any further U.S. economic strength or improvement over that of Europe could further drive EURUSD lower.

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.1% to 1.11610. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-09-27, the pair dropped 0% or 0.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.12124 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.11591. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.11040 or 1.11059 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.11040 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of September, EURUSD is up by 0.73% or 80.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out: