• Sat. May 17th, 2025

USD/CHF Forecast: Downtrend Intact While Below 0.8250

Forecast

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  • USD/CHF edges higher to approximately 0.8225 during early European trading on Wednesday
  • The index maintains a bearish bias below the 100-day EMA, reinforced by a weak RSI reading
  • Key support lies at 0.8121, while the nearest resistance is positioned around 0.8360.

USD/CHF Rises Slightly Amid Renewed USD Strength

In early European trading on Wednesday, the USD/CHF pair has inched higher, approaching the 0.8225 mark. This upward movement is driven by renewed interest in the U.S. Dollar, supported by positive sentiment around the potential U.S.-China trade agreement. Investor confidence is further bolstered by President Donald Trump’s decision to ease off previous threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, providing additional support to the greenback.


📉 Technical Picture Suggests Bearish Control

Despite the modest intraday gains, the broader technical outlook for USD/CHF remains bearish. The pair continues to trade below its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—a sign that downward momentum is still in play. Supporting this bearish stance, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 36, below the neutral 50 line, indicating that sellers remain in control in the near term.


🔻 Key Support Levels to Watch

  • 0.8121: Immediate support, corresponding to the April 16 low.

  • 0.8040: Next key level on the downside, recorded on April 21.

  • 0.8000: Psychological level and a crucial zone that could attract buyers or intensify selling pressure if broken.


🔺 Resistance Levels and Upside Potential

  • 0.8360: First resistance zone, marked by the April 9 low.

  • 0.8609: A break above 0.8360 could open the door to this level, the high from April 8.

  • 0.8750: A significant resistance and the 100-day EMA, which would need to be cleared for a shift toward a bullish bias.


🧭 Summary

While USD/CHF has shown a slight recovery, the technical landscape continues to favor the bears as long as the price stays below the 100-day EMA. Downside risks remain unless the pair can secure a sustained move above 0.8360, with deeper support targets eyeing the 0.8000 level. Traders should monitor momentum indicators and U.S. macro developments for potential intraday shifts.

USD/CHF daily chart