- USD/CHF loses momentum around 0.8995 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Fed’s Powell said the case for interest rate cuts is becoming stronger as inflation data showed some modest further progress.
- Political uncertainty in Europe and globally might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.
The USD/CHF pair trades with mild losses near 0.8995, snapping the three-day winning streak during the early European session on Thursday. The rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets drag the pair lower. Traders await the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday, which is expected to show an increase of 3.1% YoY in June.
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments continue to undermine the Greenback as traders see the US central bank begin its rate-cutting cycle in September. Powell said in testimony Tuesday to Congress that the case for interest rate cuts is becoming stronger as the most recent inflation data showed some modest further progress. He further stated that “more good data” could open the door to interest rate cuts.
However, the softer CPI inflation data for June could fuel the expectation of September rate cuts, which might exert some selling pressure on the Greenback. Financial markets are now pricing in less than a 10% chance of a Fed July rate cut, while the expectation for a September cut stood at 73%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On the Swiss front, the speculation that the Swiss National Bank will cut further interest rates might weigh on the CHF. Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group said “I expect the SNB to follow up with a third cut next quarter, and there is potential for a fourth in December if there is still high conviction in the restrictive level of monetary policy. The dovish outlook puts the franc in a vulnerable position over the coming quarters and could hinder any further recovery, particularly if the ECB takes its time in bringing rates down.” Elsewhere, political uncertainty in Europe and elsewhere might boost the Swiss Franc (CHF), which is a safe-haven currency.
