Dear ,
As requested, let’s look at GBPUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
GBPUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.32% | -42.6 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-08-30 | -0.66% | -86.7 Pips |  |
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| August | 2.12% | 272.9 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 06:00 AM Labor Day
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
In the United States, the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August rose marginally to 67.9 points from 67.8 points in July, indicating stable consumer confidence. The 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation remained unchanged at 3%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July rose slightly to 0.2% from 0.1% in June, while the core PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 0.2%. Year-over-year, the PCE Price Index held unchanged at 2.5%. Meanwhile, personal income grew to 0.3% in July, up from 0.2% in June, and consumer spending increased to 0.5% from 0.3%. The flash estimate of the Q2 GDP annual rate increased to 3% from 2.8% in Q1. Similarly, the GDP Price Index rose to 2.5% from 2.3%, while PCE excluding food and energy prices decreased slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%, and the PCE Price Index quarterly dropped to 2.5% from 2.6%. Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 24 dropped slightly to 231K from 232K. However, the House Price Index for June showed a minor decline to -0.1% from 0% in May. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation for July fell to -0.2% from 0.4% in June, while those excluding Defense saw a significant rise to 10.4% from -7.2%. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft decreased to -0.1% from 0.9% in June, yet overall Durable Goods Orders surged 9.9% from a previous -6.7% in June.
The overall economic indicators for the U.S., such as rising GDP, stable inflation expectations, and increased consumer spending, portray a robust economy. These factors are likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, often resulting in expectations for interest rate hikes. The stronger U.S. economic data may bolster the USD, putting downward pressure on GBPUSD. Recently, GBPUSD dropped by 0.32% to 1.31260 and moved lower by 0.66% for the week ending August 30, indicating a weakening pound against a strengthening dollar. The upcoming U.S. Labor Day holiday, Initial Unemployment Claims, and Nonfarm Payroll Employment data could further impact the exchange rate depending on their outcomes, thereby potentially leading to increased volatility in GBPUSD trading.
What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.32% to 1.31260. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-08-30, the pair dropped -0.66% or -86.7 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.32626 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.31659. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.31091 or 1.30692 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.31091 would indicate selling pressure.
End of August, GBPUSD is up by 2.12% or 272.9 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.33762 |
| R2 | 1.33194 |
| R1 | 1.32227 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.31659 |
| S1 | 1.30692 |
| S2 | 1.30124 |
| S3 | 1.29157 |
