• Thu. Apr 18th, 2024

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.29% to 1.07625. Week ending 2023-12-08 moved lower by -1.1%. What you need to know.

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Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period Pct Chg Momentum
Friday -0.29% -31.1 Pips
Week 2023-12-08 -1.1% -119.3 Pips
December -1.14% -123.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

  Tue 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
  Wed 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
  Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
  Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
  Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
  Thu 01:45 PM European Central Bank Press Conference
  Fri 12:00 AM Euro Summit

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in November exceed forecast and rose to 199K compared to previous figure 150K in October Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 In the week ending 02 December, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 220K compared to previous figure 219K (revised from 218K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Challenger Job Cuts in November rose to 45.51K compared to previous figure 36.836K in October
🇪🇺 Euro Area Employment Change (3-mth) in Q3 rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇪🇺 Euro Area GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth) in Q3 unchanged at -0.1% compared to previous report in Q2. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production n.seasonal adjustment. w.d.a. (12-mth) in October rose to -3.5% compared to previous figure -3.6% (revised from -3.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q3 exceed forecast and rose to 5.2% compared to previous figure 4.7% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) in October exceed forecast and improved to -1.2% compared to previous figure -2.9% in September Source: Eurostat
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) in October below forecast and rose to 0.1% compared to previous figure -0.1, revised from -0.3% in September
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders n.seasonal adjustment. (12-mth) in October exceed forecast and dropped to -7.3% compared to previous figure -4.3% in September
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to -3.7% compared to previous figure 0.2% in September
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in October below forecast and dropped to 8.733M compared to previous figure 9.35, revised from 9.553M in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in October exceed forecast and dropped to -3.6% compared to previous figure 2.3, revised from 2.8% in September Source: Census Bureau
🇪🇺 Euro Area Sentix Investor Confidence in December exceed forecast and improved to -16.8 points compared to previous figure -18.6 points in November


What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.29% to 1.07625. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-12-08, the pair dropped -1.1% or -119.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.07230.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.06920 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.06215 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.08950 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.07230 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of December, EURUSD is down by -1.14% or -123.6 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R3 1.10360
R2 1.09655
R1 1.08640
Weekly Pivot 1.07935
S1 1.06920
S2 1.06215
S3 1.05200
On Key

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