Dear ,
As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.28% | -30.6 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-09-06 | -0.94% | -104.9 Pips |  |
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| September | 0.02% | 2.6 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 02:00 AM Second 2024 United States presidential debate
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Thu 01:45 PM ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
Fri 03:00 PM The Index of Consumer Sentiment
What happened over the week
In the United States, the economy showed mixed signals in recent data releases. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in August increased to 142,000 from the downward-revised 89,000 in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity rose slightly to 2.5% in Q2 from 2.3% in Q1. In contrast, the number of Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data showed a decline to 7.673 million in July from a revised figure of 7.91 million in June. On a positive note, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 227,000 from a previous 231,000, and Factory Orders in July surged to 5% from a -3.3% decline in June.
In the Euro Area, economic indicators presented a cautiously optimistic outlook. Seasonally adjusted GDP for the second quarter of 2024 increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU, a slight improvement from the previous quarter. Retail Trade Turnover in July edged up to 0.1% from a revised -0.4% in June. The Producer Price Index for July improved to -2.1% compared to the revised -3.3% in June. In Germany, new orders in manufacturing experienced a substantial jump to 3.7% in July from -11.8% in June, although the seasonally adjusted figure showed a decrease to 2.9% from 3.9% in June.
The recent economic news has had a discernible impact on EURUSD, with the pair dropping by -0.28% to 1.10830 on Friday and down -0.94% over the week ending September 6, 2024. The mixed performance of the U.S. labor market, coupled with somewhat inconsistent economic indicators from the Euro Area, contributed to this movement. The upcoming high-impact events, including the second U.S. presidential debate, CPI Inflation Rate release, and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision and monetary policy press conference, are likely to add significant volatility to the EURUSD pair. Market participants will be closely monitoring these events for further direction. Importantly, the outcome of the ECB’s rate decision will be pivotal; any signaling of continued or increased tightening could support the euro, while weaker indications might add downward pressure on EURUSD.
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.28% to 1.10830. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-09-06, the pair dropped -0.94% or -104.9 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.11819 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.11019. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.10408 or 1.10219 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.10408 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of September, EURUSD is up by 0.02% or 2.6 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.13041 |
| R2 | 1.12430 |
| R1 | 1.11630 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.11019 |
| S1 | 1.10219 |
| S2 | 1.09608 |
| S3 | 1.08808 |
