Dear ,
As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.02% | -2.3 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-06-28 | 0.22% | 23.4 Pips |  |
||
| June | -1.15% | -124.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Mon 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Tue 10:00 AM Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth)
Tue 10:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Tue 02:30 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Wed 03:15 PM European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 06:00 AM Independence Day
Fri 10:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in June rose to 68.2 points compared to previous figure 65.6 points in May Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth) in May dropped to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.7% in April Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (1-mth) in May dropped to 0.1% compared to previous figure 0.3, revised from 0.2% in April Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Change in June dropped to 19K compared to previous figure 25K in May Source: Destatis
🇺🇸 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Price Index in Q1 unchanged at 3.1% compared to previous report in Q4. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 rose to 3.7% compared to previous figure 3.6% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft in May dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.2, revised from 0.3% in April Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (3-mth) in Q1 rose to 3.4% compared to previous figure 3.3% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 June, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 233K compared to previous figure 238K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense in May dropped to -0.2% compared to previous figure 0% in April Source: Census Bureau
🇪🇺 Euro Area Business Climate (BCI) in June dropped to -0.46 points compared to previous figure -0.39 points in May Source: European Commission
🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence in June unchanged at -14 points compared to previous report in May. Source: DG ECFIN
🇪🇺 Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in June dropped to 95.9 points compared to previous figure 96 points in May Source: DG ECFIN
🇩🇪 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in July dropped to -21.8 points compared to previous figure -21, revised from -20.9 points in June Source: GfK
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in April rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.1% in March Source: FHFA
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Current Assessment in June unchanged at 88.3 points compared to previous report in May. Source: ifo Institute
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Business Climate in June dropped to 88.6 points compared to previous figure 89.3 points in May Source: ifo Institute
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.02% to 1.07112. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-06-28, the pair rose 0.22% or 23.4 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.06677.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.07458 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.07082. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.06677 or 1.06707 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.07458 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of June, EURUSD is down by -1.15% or -124.2 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.08269 |
| R2 | 1.07863 |
| R1 | 1.07488 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.07082 |
| S1 | 1.06707 |
| S2 | 1.06301 |
| S3 | 1.05926 |
