Dear ,
As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.32% | 34.5 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-03-01 | 0.19% | 21 Pips | |
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| March | 0.32% | 34.5 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 10:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Thu 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies
Fri 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Fri 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in February dropped to 76.9 points compared to previous figure 79.6 points in January Source: University of Michigan
Euro Area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) in February flash estimate rose to 0.6% compared to previous figure -0.4% in January Source: Eurostat
Euro Area Unemployment Rate in January dropped to 6.4% compared to previous figure 6.5, revised from 6.4% in December Source: Eurostat
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) in January rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.2% in December
U.S. Personal Income (1-mth) in January rose to 1% compared to previous figure 0.3% in December Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Germany CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in February flash estimate rose to 0.4% compared to previous figure 0.2% in January
Germany Unemployment Change in February rose to 11K compared to previous figure -2K in January Source: Destatis
Germany Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) in January improved to -1.4% compared to previous figure -1.7% in December Source: Destatis
U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q4 flash estimate rose to 2.1% compared to previous figure 2% in Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. GDP Annualized in Q4 flash estimate dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.3% in Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator in February dropped to 95.4 points compared to previous figure 96.2 points in January
U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in December dropped to 0.1% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in November
U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January dropped to -6.1% compared to previous figure -0.3, revised from 0% in December Source: Census Bureau
Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in March improved to -29 points compared to previous figure -29.6, revised from -29.7 points in February Source: GfK
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.32% to 1.08398. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-03-01, the pair rose 0.19% or 21 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.07956.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.08660 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.08338. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.07956 or 1.08016 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.08660 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of March, EURUSD is up by 0.32% or 34.5 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.09424 |
| R2 | 1.09042 |
| R1 | 1.08720 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.08338 |
| S1 | 1.08016 |
| S2 | 1.07634 |
| S3 | 1.07312 |
