• Thu. May 30th, 2024

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.76% to 1.07888. Week ending 2024-02-02 moved lower by -0.58%. What you need to know.


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Dear ,

As requested, let’s look at EURUSD and the recent events that happened in the previous trading session.

EURUSD Analysis

Period Pct Chg Momentum
Friday -0.76% -82.5 Pips
Week 2024-02-02 -0.58% -62.4 Pips
February -0.27% -29.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

  Mon 12:00 AM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
  Tue 10:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
  Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in January rose to 79 points compared to previous figure 78.8 points in December Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in December dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 2.6% in November Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in January rose to 353K compared to previous figure 333K (revised upward from 216K) in December Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 In the week ending 27 January, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 224K compared to previous figure 215K (revised from 214K) Source: Department of Labor
🇪🇺 Euro Area Unemployment Rate in December unchanged at 6.4% compared to previous report in November. Source: Eurostat
🇪🇺 Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in January flash estimate dropped to 2.8% compared to previous figure 2.9% in December Source: Eurostat
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index (ECI) in Q4 below forecast and dropped to 0.9% compared to previous figure 1.1% in Q3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇩🇪 Germany CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in January flash estimate below forecast and dropped to 2.9% compared to previous figure 3.7% in December
🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Change in January below forecast and dropped to -2K compared to previous figure 5K in December Source: Destatis
🇩🇪 Germany Retail Trade (1-mth) in December below forecast and improved to -1.6% compared to previous figure -2.5% in November Source: Destatis
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in December exceed forecast and rose to 9.026M compared to previous figure 8.925, revised from 8.79M in November Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in November unchanged at 0.3% compared to previous report in October.
🇪🇺 Euro Area GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth) in Q4 flash estimate rose to 0.1% compared to previous figure 0% in Q3 Source: Eurostat
🇪🇺 Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator in January dropped to 96.2 points compared to previous figure 96.3 points (revised from 96.4 points)
🇩🇪 Germany GDP (12-mth) in Q4 flash estimate improved to -0.2% compared to previous figure -0.4% in Q3 Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.76% to 1.07888. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-02-02, the pair dropped -0.58% or -62.4 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.07797.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.07465 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.07043 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.08974 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.07797 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of February, EURUSD is down by -0.27% or -29.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R3 1.09819
R2 1.09397
R1 1.08642
Weekly Pivot 1.08220
S1 1.07465
S2 1.07043
S3 1.06288


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